Will forces loyal to Dr. Riek maintain momentum?

Since the birth of mankind, terrains and seasons have played a crucial role in our ability to evolve, survive and adapt. For example, hostile terrains and seasons reduce our survivability, while friendly terrains and seasons improve it. It's no longer secret that there are at most four ever changing seasons in the world depending on your geographical deposition. They comprise of:

• summer, the hot season
• winter, the cold season
• autumn, the rainy season and,
• spring, the perfect season.

Wet seasons have always provided humanoid with sufficient food to eat, sufficient water to drink and trees to hide from the preying eyes of marauding man eating predators etc. Conversely, dry seasons have always caused mass migration to follow receding water and food sources so as to fend off extinction from starvation and dehydration. To ensure survival and continuity, early human perfected the art of survival by adapting and always improving means of adaptions in the ever changing terrain and seasons.

Bringing this to perspective: so far the SPLA forces loyal to Dr. Riek Machar have shown great strength and perceived weakness at the same. In the last week alone, these forces were able to demonstrate their ability to plan, communicate, coordinate, execute and monitor actionable war plans. With excellent knowledge of terrain and better utilization of the season; they were to evade the preying eyes of the Ugandan beasts of the sky, tanks of the land, and sharks of river Nile.

By being highly discipline, agile, maneuverable and tactical, they were able to plan and execute wars and ambushes resulting in great defeat of thousands matching SPLA troops, who, ironically, were their fellow brothers. The fact that they were able to do this without external help left most war analysts scratching their heads.

This February, the ever changing terrain and season will reverse. The season will change phase from winter to dry season. Like any other dry season, the grass and trees will wither and drinkable water will dry up.  Too, the terrain will follow suit as withered trees and grass would burn down and expose the land to the preying eyes of beasts of the sky, tanks of the land, and sharks of the river Nile. under such conditions, one does not have to be a rocket scientist to see clearly that the rebels will find it be very hard to plan and implement wars and ambushes.

Unless they[rebels] move fast and quickly to secure Juba or its surrounding satellite towns, the changing terrain would be their worst enemy against thousands matching army, and Bor town will likely fall again to Kirr’s forces.