Would negotiation Museveni's way prevent South Sudan sliding into an all-out civil war?

War through military action, whether internally instigated or, externally instigated through foreign intervention with specific self-interest to protect, is not only tempting but is often sought as the only means of resolving conflict.  The life cycle cost of war is often underestimated;even the Americans who have the highest level of education have fallen prey to the beast. They have as early as 2003, resorted to using their military might in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam just to name a few, in resolving conflict and currently rushing to get out. When African leaders resort to military threats and actions, one would only be left to wonder: haven’t they learned from the past! Just what is the logic and cost of war through military actions?

At least everyone knows that military action:

• have never solved a political problem
• leads to total destruction of the nation’s infrastructure
• leads to death and displacement of thousands of civilians
• Escalates conflict
• Leaves a long lasting mark and trauma for generation to come
• Prolongs conflict and increase human suffering
• Stresses limited resources

 Drawing parallel from the American, African leaders particularly Mr. Museveni is employing tactic similar to the former president of America, George W. Bush – the either you’re with us or you’re against us doctrine. In the last two weeks, Museveni has jumped in the wagon throwing his military might behind Salva Kirr by deploying troops and providing air-support. His military fighter jets particularly Mig29 and helicopter gunship have been spraying indiscriminately the rebels’ position. The international community would call this interference in the internal political affairs of a sovereign nation, but they have chosen to keep quiet. While the American has now learned the untold human and financial cost of military engagements and shying from similar actions in the future, Museveni is flexing his military muscle pursuing Bush’s doctrine of shock and awe, even though Uganda would never produce or manufacture a bicycle let alone a car or a fighter plan. One would think that Museveni would have learn his lessons from his involvement in DRC Congo, and the untold suffering befalling the populace of that nation. No,just as he dominates and rules Uganda with iron fist, he too would like to dominate east Africa; he wants regional domination.

In the last few days, the international communities including IGAD, African union, United Nations, USA government and many others have scrambled for a diplomatic solution to try to contain the conflict from escalating into a full scale all-out civil war and to subsequently end the conflict. The members of IGAD, who are also head of East African Community, spearheaded the initiative for dialogue and peaceful settlement of the conflict. This is a commendable move.
However, cracks and lack of experience emerged following a ceasefire meeting held in Nairobi Kenya and chaired by its president Mr. Huhuru Kenyatta who is also the president of Kenya. The meeting which was to work out immediate cessation of all hostilities not only excluded all members of the rebels, but also did not yield an action plan on how the ceasefire would be initiated, implemented,monitored and enforced.

While the intent to mediate and de-escalate the situation to end all hostilities was a great commendable move,the meeting itself was lopsided exposing their lack of experience.  The outcome of the meeting, too speaks volume.It failed to produce an action plan and did not answer key critical questions.  What it surely did was, open wide the lid on the leaders’ tendency to resolve conflict by force, lack of neutrality to mediate, bullish attitude, emotional immaturity, full support of one side without thinking through consequential repercussions.

• How could you possibly negotiate a ceasefire with one party only, calling it a ceasefire and expect compliance from the excluded party?
• How could it be a ceasefire if both parties have not agreed to it?
• How could it be a credible ceasefire if you do not have basic ingredients and mechanisms in place to start, monitor and enforce it?
• How could you offer to mediate while barking out military threats and actions at the same time?

While the rest of IGAD leaders have chosen to remain quiet for now, Mr. Museveni who took power by military coup and, currently the only African leader with no position for a vice president had this to say following his recent meeting in Juba with Salva Kirr. "We gave Riek Machar four days to respond (to the ceasefire offer) and if he doesn't we shall have to go for him,all of us. That is what we agreed in Nairobi," Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni told reporters in South Sudan's capital, Juba.” How could you throw your weight behind one of the warring parties and claim neutrality at the same time?
The current crisis in South Sudan is exposing our leaders to the extent that the African public is beginning to see why Africa as a continent is marred by instability, conflict, underdevelopment,starvation, authoritarianism and dependency on foreign aid. African leaders,unlike Nelson Mandela, don’t get it and won’t probably for many years to come. The don't get it when it comes to: political diplomacy, peaceful crisis management, peaceful relinquishing of power, observing the constitution and rule of law, creating jobs for the populace, supporting higher education the backbone of human civilization, building and maintaining nations’ infrastructure, investment etc. etc.

Did the 'divide and conquer' doctrine turn Nuer & Dinka foes?

In the nineteen century, when European came to Africa with a bible on one hand and conquest on the other, the geopolitics of the entire content changed forever. It is now public knowledge that their coming resulted in mass displacement, exploitation of valuable resources, maiming and murdering of innocent civilians, and christianitization of the populace.

According to folklore, the Nuer and Dinka people, who are believed to have a shared divine ancestral origin, had lived peacefully side-by-side prosperously for hundreds of thousands years. But something went terribly wrong in the early nineteen century after the two communities armed only with spears and clubs, fought vigorously and defeated the heavily armed British with modern weapons of that century.

Because the Nuer and Dinka people stood and fought together, they prevented mass-europeanization of its populace, hence, resulting in preservation of own cultures and traditions, which by comparison seemed to have been built on ten commandments.

The news of defeat was not well received by the monarchy back in England. British, being some of the smartest calculative people on earth, had to fight back soon and swiftly using psychological warfare through 'divide & conquer' to win and bring under their 'iron-fist' rule the Nuer and Dinka.

According to Nuer and Dinka folklore, the British people introduced bodily marking, or branding to identify, isolate, and segregate the populace of both communities. Each community was allegedly said to have been assigned unique facial marks and bodily tattoos as symbols of identify and manhood. Even women of both communities did not scape branding. Were the facial marks and bodily tattoos, the alleged byproduct of ‘divide and conquer rule’, the root-caused of today's rivalry and enmity between the Nuer and Dinka people, with each wanting total domination of the other?

After a successful branding of both communities, the British people employed a psychological warfare machine to plant seeds of evil hatred deep down in the core of the hearts of the Nuer and Dinka people. It's alleged that the Nuer people were told they were the bravest and fiercest fighters. The Dinka people, on the other hand, were allegedly told they were better leaders and the smartest in the land. According to folklore, the planting of evil seeds using the master-plan did not end there. Both communities were encouraged to raid each others' cattle to gather and accumulate wealth. Was this why the Nuer and Dinka people, who shared the same bloodline through common ancestral origin and marriage, are always at loggerhead politically, each wanting total domination over the other?

If the answer to any of the above questions is definite yes, or may be yes: why can the learned Nuer and Dinka people  undo the evil of the master plan and work together to reverse the evil cycle that is threatening the very foundation of South Sudan by preaching unity, peace and reconciliation?

The Ancestral origin of the Nuer and Dinka people

Since time memorial, the Nuer and Dinka people have always referred to themselves as half-gods half-humans. Could this be true? The Nuer people have even taken this divinity further by referring to themselves as the only pure humans, or "Naath or nei ti Naath" in the nuer language. Have you ever wondered why?

Hundreds of thousands of years ago, in the swampy region around the Nile river, landed from the sky a god called Deng, the ancestor of all modern Nuer & Dinka people. According to Nuer & Dinka Mythology, Deng, soon after landing on earth, interacted with a human woman who bore him two daughters, Nyatuoi Deng - the ancestral mother of Nuer and Nyaruop Deng, the ancestral mother of Dinka.

In the last century alone, more powerful prophets and prophetess had emerged mostly out of the Nuer and Dinka people than all other tribes combined. But why? Are the gods continuing to maintain contacts with their hybrid Nuer & Dinka grand-offspring through prophets?
In the nineteen century, a powerful Prophet called "Ngundeng Boong" emerged out of nowhere. He went on to foretell many great prophecies, some of which include foretelling a great suffering that would befell Nuer and Dinka people. According to prophet Ngundeng, this great suffering would not only culminate in the the birth of a new nation, South Sudan but also to the alleviation of all suffering.

But just what does the name Ngundeng mean and where does it come from? The divine name "Ngundeng" is a derivative of Nuer and Dinka words, "Ngun" & "Deng" . Ngun is gift and Deng is god. Fascinating isn't it?

But why are the Nuer and Dinka people, who are believed to have a shared divine ancestral origin according to their mythology, trying to annihilate themselves, even though one of the greatest prophets of all time foretold that they would be given a new nation which they would enjoy and prosper?

Will forces loyal to Dr. Riek maintain momentum?

Since the birth of mankind, terrains and seasons have played a crucial role in our ability to evolve, survive and adapt. For example, hostile terrains and seasons reduce our survivability, while friendly terrains and seasons improve it. It's no longer secret that there are at most four ever changing seasons in the world depending on your geographical deposition. They comprise of:

• summer, the hot season
• winter, the cold season
• autumn, the rainy season and,
• spring, the perfect season.

Wet seasons have always provided humanoid with sufficient food to eat, sufficient water to drink and trees to hide from the preying eyes of marauding man eating predators etc. Conversely, dry seasons have always caused mass migration to follow receding water and food sources so as to fend off extinction from starvation and dehydration. To ensure survival and continuity, early human perfected the art of survival by adapting and always improving means of adaptions in the ever changing terrain and seasons.

Bringing this to perspective: so far the SPLA forces loyal to Dr. Riek Machar have shown great strength and perceived weakness at the same. In the last week alone, these forces were able to demonstrate their ability to plan, communicate, coordinate, execute and monitor actionable war plans. With excellent knowledge of terrain and better utilization of the season; they were to evade the preying eyes of the Ugandan beasts of the sky, tanks of the land, and sharks of river Nile.

By being highly discipline, agile, maneuverable and tactical, they were able to plan and execute wars and ambushes resulting in great defeat of thousands matching SPLA troops, who, ironically, were their fellow brothers. The fact that they were able to do this without external help left most war analysts scratching their heads.

This February, the ever changing terrain and season will reverse. The season will change phase from winter to dry season. Like any other dry season, the grass and trees will wither and drinkable water will dry up.  Too, the terrain will follow suit as withered trees and grass would burn down and expose the land to the preying eyes of beasts of the sky, tanks of the land, and sharks of the river Nile. under such conditions, one does not have to be a rocket scientist to see clearly that the rebels will find it be very hard to plan and implement wars and ambushes.

Unless they[rebels] move fast and quickly to secure Juba or its surrounding satellite towns, the changing terrain would be their worst enemy against thousands matching army, and Bor town will likely fall again to Kirr’s forces.

The genesis of recent ethnic cleansing in South Sudan

Ethnic cleansing

It all started that fateful night, Dec 15 2013, when “our dear leader” issued an arrest warrant to all his political opponents, who had earlier on walked out of the meeting room. For several months, things had been brewing within the SPLM party with national convention put off times and times again by "our dear leader".

A week before that fateful night, things had reached a boiling point within the highest hierarchy of the SPLM political Bureau. A number of the SPLM decedents lead by the former Vice President convened an urgent media conference, which was attended by the local and international media. At the conclusion of the conference, came an announcement of a planned public demonstration to be held the following weekend. The news of a public demonstration sent huge shock-waves through the highest hierarchy of the SPLM political bureau.

Fearing the planned Saturday demonstration would result in chaos,  the members of the religious communities convened urgently a reconciliation meeting which was attended by both parties. Unfortunately, the meeting ended the same way it began. A few days late came the long awaited party meeting which everyone felt was long overdue. When the meeting started, the president took the occasion hurling barrage of demeaning tongue-lashing mudslinging at his former Vice President. It's not clear how many references he made about the '1991' coup, about the betrayal of the SPLA, about his loyalty to the party. Every hour, minute and second that had passed during the talk down speech must have been the most excruciating moments for the former president of South Sudan, Dr. Riek Machar. Throughout the meeting, Dr. Machar set very uncomfortably with his chin resting wearily against his right hand fist while listening to everything including war songs in "Dinka" coming out of the mouth of his former boss.

The next Sunday, when the meeting reconvened, Dr. Machar and his factional group had enough. They walked out of the meeting venue after listening wearily to the same demeaning rhetoric. That upset "our dear leader" to the core. He took it personally. He felt he had been disrespected to the core. And with his emotions running wildly out of control, "our dear leader" felt the time had come for him to settle the matter squarely once and for all. That fateful night - Dec 15 2013, "our dear leader" issued an arrest warrant to his rivals, not knowing that such decision would turn the nation inside out, and usher in the beginning of negative gearing.

That evening a word of the arrest warrant went out in parallel with an order to disarm only those presidential guards from the Nuer tribe. Boom! The first bullet started. The members of the presidential guards exchanged fire for the first time not knowing that they were starting a "world war three" for South Sudan.

With extrajudicial killing on the rampage, targeting only the members of the Nuer community, Dr. Machar was forcefully sneaked out to safety by members of his bodyguards, who threatened to kill him if he wouldn't comply than to be killed by the marauding presidential guards. When the night had worn out, it became clear that thousands of innocent civilians from Nuer had been killed. Dr. Riek's home had been reduced to rubble by the tanks and shelling. Disarmed bodyguards plus women and children living in the compound were among the dead.

Majority of South Sudanese at home and in diaspora were in shock after discovering the atrocities that had been committed. Social media was flooded with condemnations by members of the Dinka and the Nuer communities.
Over-shaken by the sheer level of atrocities, many South Sudanese poured their support at Dr. Riek Machar, who was in hiding. But his supports from the Dinka community soon disappeared after Dr. Riek said he was in charge of the rebels. Many had argued that Dr. Riek should have given himself up to the authorities so he could be arrested and the matter could have been solved politically. This would have evaded war, most argued.

The critical questions are:

1. being hunted down accused of attempted coup, could they have spared his life had he given himself in?
2. with his home reduced to rubble by tanks and shelling believing that he was in the premises, could they have spared his life had he given himself in?
3. With his unarmed bodyguards and relatives (including women and children) killed sprayed with tanks shells, could they have spared his life had he given himself in?

If you could be honest with yourself and answer the above questions with an absolute yes, then you would come to realize why Dr. Riek took the path he had taken.